Why are turkeys so much cheaper this Thanksgiving? If you’re anything like us, the price of your Thanksgiving turkey is an important consideration. And this year, we have some good news to share. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the average price of an 8-to-16-pound turkey was $1.27 per pound in August 2023. That’s a 22% decline from August 2022. The U.S. Department of Agriculture also confirms that frozen, whole hen turkeys are down just over 22% from last year, at $1.27 per pound. So, why is this happening? The answer lies in the containment of a highly contagious avian flu outbreak. In early 2022, the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history started infecting wild and commercial flocks, resulting in the death of over 60 million birds. This led to significant increases in poultry and egg prices due to shrinking supplies. However, the situation has improved. In September 2023, only a little over 500 birds contracted the avian flu, compared to 8.15 million birds in the same period the previous year, according to the AFBF. This improvement is a relief for the broader poultry industry, which has been “holding its breath.” Unfortunately, avian flu cases have started to climb again. In October 2023, there were 1.37 million new cases, and so far in November, 1.09 million new cases have been detected. This resurgence may impact the availability of certain kinds of turkeys, especially fresh ones. Gregory P. Martin, an extension educator in poultry at Penn State University Extension, explains that the timing of bird flu outbreaks affects the availability of fresh turkeys. While there should be an ample supply of frozen turkeys, as producers can store them for up to a year, fresh turkeys will be harder to come by due to the recent surge in influenza cases. Fresh turkeys needed to be processed four to six weeks before Thanksgiving, and most of the fresh stock has already been processed and is being held in refrigeration. If you’re in need of a fresh turkey, Martin advises ordering it now, as it may be challenging to find one closer to Thanksgiving. However, frozen turkeys are often cheaper than fresh ones. According to the USDA’s most recent national turkey retail report, as of November 3, the average cost of a frozen turkey is approximately $1.18 per pound in the northeastern U.S., compared to $1.69 per pound for fresh turkeys. It’s also worth noting that if you were hoping to support a local farm and purchase a fresh turkey, you may be out of luck this year. Local farms typically can’t process and store turkeys as far back as larger producers can. Martin suggests that if you’re ordering from a local farm, you probably should’ve done it last month. With all this in mind, let’s take a look at some of the listed online prices for frozen turkeys at several grocery stores: – Target: $1.49 per pound for Butterball premium all-natural young turkey, 99 cents per pound for Good & Gather premium basted young turkey. – Albertsons: $2.59 per pound for Butterball whole turkey, $2.49 per pound for Signature Farms whole turkey, $4.49 per pound for Signature Select fully cooked hickory smoked whole young turkey. – Publix: 69 cents per pound for Publix whole turkey Grade A, $2.99 per pound for Plainville whole turkey raised without antibiotics. – Walmart: $1.28 per pound for Butterball premium whole turkey, 98 cents per pound for Shady Brook Farms whole young turkey. Now, you might be wondering if turkey prices are lower because inflation is cooling off. While inflation has slowed down in recent months, most prices haven’t gone down just yet. Consumer prices across all categories are up 3.2% year over year as of October 2023, compared to a 7.7% increase in October 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analysts predict that in 2024, inflation will have dropped near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, it’s important to remember that anything can happen between now and then. Nonetheless, if the economy reacts as federal regulators expect, consumers can hope for a calming of inflation for groceries, housing, and other goods. In the meantime, let’s be grateful for the lower prices of Thanksgiving turkeys this year. It’s a small but welcome blessing that can make the holiday season a little bit brighter.